This may be overstating things a little bit, but not by much: Canada is about to come to a standstill.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens — this country’s two oldest and most storied hockey franchises — are about to play each other in the playoffs for the first time since 1979. Both boast significant followings in each other’s backyard, as well as across the country, around North America and abroad.
The stakes are the same for both: Win or face humiliation.
The teams are similar, built around dynamic youth with speed and skill, supported by veteran players who may not come this close to a Stanley Cup opportunity again.
The Maple Leafs have had a slow build to this point, frustrating too, in an inability to win a playoff round since the arrival of stars Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. It will weigh on them.
The Canadiens may have sped up their development around Nick Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Cole Caufield after a surprising result in last summer’s playoffs, with their GM Marc Bergevin’s assessment that the pandemic-necessitated realigned North Division provided an opportunity he couldn’t pass up. They have so many veterans now, young players like Kotkaniemi and Caufield will have trouble getting into the lineup.
The Leafs are the favourites, having won the North Division’s regular-season crown and beaten Montreal handily over 10 games (7-2-1). But when these two teams meet, you can usually throw out expectations based on paper and get ready for a wild ride.
Sure, both teams have had more of a recent playoff history with both Boston and Ottawa. But it won’t take much for Toronto and Montreal’s rivalry to move from the theoretical realm to the real world for the under-50 crowd.
They don’t like each other much and it’s going to be a physical series. Matthews’ back is going to take a beating from Shea Weber’s stick. Carey Price is going to get to know Zach Hyman. If they don’t already, Leafs fans will learn to hate Brendan Gallagher. Joe Thornton and Corey Perry will renew acquaintances.
Players know what each of the fan bases are like. They know as many people will be rooting for them across the country as against.
Let’s get going already.
Here’s how the two teams shape up.
Forwards
Maple Leafs: While Matthews led the NHL in scoring, Marner led the team in points and Nylander did Nylander-type things all year, none have ever had a particularly memorable playoff. Matthews has piled up some numbers, 12 goals in 25 post-season games. These three in particular need to take the next step collectively for the team to take the next step, as in win a round. Captain John Tavares has to pose an offensive threat. Hyman needs to be at his buzzing best. The core has never had a better support group, with Thornton, Nick Foligno, Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds.
Canadiens: Selke candidate Phillip Danault has done a terrific job all year on Matthews. Gallagher is the team’s unstoppable heartbeat, Tyler Toffoli their go-to scorer. Josh Anderson, Eric Staal and Corey Perry offer size and experience. Suzuki is as dynamic as any Leaf forward. So is Caufield, who may be used sparingly. Jonathan Drouin is not expected back from a personal leave.
Edge: Leafs. They outscored Montreal 34-25 and in a key analytic — expected goals, which is a measure of the quality of shots and scoring chances — bested Montreal 2.98 to 2.31 per game over 10 games.
Defence
Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly has sputtered lately on the defensive side of the puck, though T.J. Brodie remains as solid as ever. Rookie Rasmus Sandin has taken Rielly’s spot on the first power play. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl should get a healthy dose of Suzuki and Toffoli. Zach Bogosian’s return will be welcome from a physical and penalty-killing perspective. Considering the Leafs could have Travis Dermott and Ben Hutton available as Black Aces, their defensive depth is far better than it once was.
Canadiens: The Montreal blueliners (Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson and trade-deadline pickup Jon Merrill) are big (six-foot-three or six-foot-four) and will be able to block out the Leaf forwards from the high-danger scoring areas. Weber’s slapshot is a shot-blocker’s nightmare, and a power-play weapon few teams have. Jeff Petry had a Norris-type season, and Brett Kulak is getting the nod over Alexander Romanov, a rookie with defensive flaws, though quite the agile playmaking puck mover.
Edge: Canadiens, though not by a lot. The Canadiens’ six defencemen are probably more fearsome as a unit than Toronto’s, but the Leafs have a bigger commitment to team defence, with forwards helping. The Canadiens had a harder time generating offence, with the Leafs blocking shots and intercepting passes at greater rates.
Goaltending
Maple Leafs: It will be Jack Campbell to start, with 17 wins in 22 starts (mostly in the second half of the season). He deserves it. He’s never played an NHL playoff game, so there’s not a lot of history to draw on. Frederik Andersen, who has started every Leafs playoff game since 2017, will back up, but will likely get in some action when the series had back-to-back games in Montreal for Games 3 and 4. Andersen missed most of the second half of the season with a knee injury, and carries the weight of playoff failures of the recent past. If the Leafs get that deep, trade-deadline pickup Dave Rittich and Michael Hutchinson are waiting in the wings.
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Canadiens: A distinct advantage here in that Price typically raises his game in the playoffs. He seems healthy, past his concussion problems. But even if Price falters, Jake Allen has a wealth of experience in the NHL and could be a starting goalie on many other NHL teams. Rookie Cayden Primeau is a bit of an untested commodity, though generally considered Price’s heir apparent. And let’s not forget this franchise has a history of using rookie goalies to great success in the playoffs.
Edge: Canadiens. Hey, Price is Canada’s goalie. Throw out his regular season. He does. His playoff numbers are terrific. He had a .936 save percentage last year in two playoff rounds, after a .909 season. He rises to the occasion. Just ask Sidney Crosby how easily Price can get into shooters’ heads.
Special teams
Maple Leafs: The power play was terrific early in the season, terrible lately. Is it in their heads? Is it the way teams play them? Can they start with a clean slate? The penalty kill has been fairly good all year, and will get a calming boost when Zach Bogosian returns. The Leafs are one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL, so playing a clean, penalty-free game is in their interests.
Canadiens: Montreal’s power play was 17th overall (19.2-per-cent success rate) to the Leafs’ 16th (20.0). The teams were 23rd and 24th on the penalty kill, tied at 78.5-per-cent efficiency.
Edge: Leafs, but only by the slimmest of margins and because they have a bit more firepower.
Coaching
Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe has been a winner at just about every level, with titles in junior A and the AHL. He’s a tactician unafraid to take chances while using every tool he has. That means a reliance on statistical analysis for matchups, like faceoffs, at key times. He uses his gut, too. He loads up lines when he feels it is necessary. He’s a demanding coach, and a bit of a button-pusher who has the confidence of the fan base.
Canadiens: Dominique Ducharme has the “interim” title, with a Memorial Cup and world junior gold to his credit. He was brought in to work with young players, he will start the playoffs relying on veterans. He’s a thinker who sometimes might out-think himself. His every action, like any decision on Caufield, is met with an equal and opposite reaction by a confused fan base.
Edge: Leafs. Keefe just seems a bit more adept at dealing with controversy, and only has to do it in one language.
X-factor
Maple Leafs: Joe Thornton. It’s a symbolic choice that could easily be Jason Spezza or Nick Foligno or Wayne Simmonds. The veterans are Leafs because they’re chasing the Stanley Cup. But they each add a valuable element, be it scoring, forechecking or physicality. In Thornton’s case it’s an intangible. His job will be to help ease the pressure, keep things light and help keep his teammates focused. And, yes, he can still make a few plays.
Canadiens: Cole Caufield. Hate to put pressure on a rookie, but he’s special. The Canadiens have a rich tradition of finding and developing talented players and creating myths about them. If Caufield gets into the lineup and scores a few big goals — those are the only kind he seems to score — the mythmaking around this young player will begin.
Edge: Leafs. Everybody loves Thornton.
Prediction
Leafs in five. Because if it gets to six, and Montreal has fans in the Bell Centre, oh my.
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