As the lockout drags on, we’re taking this opportunity to break down some players in the Nationals organization who haven’t garnered as many headlines. Today we look at right-hander Gerardo Carrillo, one of the four players acquired from the Dodgers in last summer’s blockbuster trade. ...
RHP GERARDO CARRILLO
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 5-foot-10, 170 lbs.
Age on opening day 2022: 23
How acquired: Traded from Dodgers with Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and Donovan Casey for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, July 2021
2021 stats (Double-A Tulsa): 3-2, 4.25 ERA, 15 G, 14 GS, 59 1/3 IP, 49 H, 31 R, 28 ER, 9 HR, 29 BB, 70 SO, 16 HBP, 1.315 WHIP, .221 Opp. AVG
2021 stats (Double-A Harrisburg): 0-5, 5.59 ERA, 8 G, 8 GS, 37 IP, 40 H, 28 R, 23 ER, 5 HR, 21 BB, 38 SO, 7 HBP, 1.649 WHIP, .270 Opp. AVG
2021 analysis: Signed as a 17-year-old pitcher out of Mexico in 2016, Gerardo Carrillo made the slow trek up the Dodgers farm system, like so many players losing the 2020 minor league season and only finally making his Double-A debut last year. His totals in 15 games with Tulsa didn’t necessarily dazzle, but his ERA was inflated by back-to-back rough starts in June in which he was charged with 11 combined earned runs.
Truth is, Carrillo gave up two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 15 outings (the one non-start was a four-inning long relief appearance). And his strikeout rate (10.6 per nine innings) turned plenty of heads along the way despite his elevated walk rate (4.4 per nine innings).
Success didn’t immediately translate following the July trade to the Nationals; Carrillo went 0-5 and put a whopping 68 runners on base in only 37 innings. Even so, he was charged with two or fewer earned runs in four of his eight starts with Harrisburg, further evidence of his ability to harness everything on any given night.
2022 outlook: Already on the 40-man roster at the time of the trade, Carrillo will come to spring training and participate in big league camp. The Dodgers had to burn up one of his options last season, so he only has two remaining, which could add some urgency to his path to the majors.
Look for Carrillo to be part of the rotation at Triple-A Rochester, and though he probably wouldn’t be the first starter called up to D.C., there’s ample reason to believe he’ll make his debut sometime this summer.
The broader question for the Nationals is what role ultimately best suits Carrillo. He has elite stuff, including a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, has reached triple digits on occasion and has natural sinking movement. Of his three off-speed pitches, the slider is rated his best, followed by the curveball and then the changeup.
The issue, as with so many young pitchers, is command. Carrillo has struggled at times to maintain it. He’s also not a particularly big physical specimen as a 5-foot-10, 170-lb. right-hander. All of that has led outside observers to wonder if he’s ultimately destined for the bullpen.
Which wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing. The Nationals have starting pitching prospects who outrank Carrillo on the organizational depth chart. They don’t have much in the way of relief prospects. If Carrillo proves capable of throwing enough strikeouts with his fastball, slider and occasional off-speed pitch, he could wind up an intriguing late-inning reliever when it’s all said and done.
Can Carrillo discover command to match elite arm? - MASNsports.com
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